Sir Alan Budd the head of the OBR [Office
of Budget Responsibility] is to step down in the summer. It
is reported that he had said in private that he
intended to resign after the first set of reports were completed.
No successor has yet been found although the coalition
has now started to advertising for one. With
the government having 3 months notice of his intention to
resign, it would have been logical they would have attempted
and succeeded in finding a replacement, prior to Sir Alan
Budd’s intention to step down was made public.
"His announcement comes after the treasury
leaked information to the press regarding the unemployment
figures, and after it
was discovered that David Cameron had been passed the “up
to date” unemployment figures 2 minutes before he announced
them in parliament, hoping to wrong-foot the opposition who
didn’t have these figures. Sir Alan
brought forward the publication of the data following an earlier
leak to a newspaper, but told the Treasury select committee
this week that Mr Cameron's use of the figures was "not
appropriate”.
This was the catalyst which
prompted the feeling that the OBR had lost its creditability.
Bearing in mind that the OBR works out of the treasury, and
uses treasury staff, it did lend weight to this theory, especially
when you consider the treasury sat in on the coalition talks
and advised the coalition, when it was only supposed to advise
the government, which at that time was the Labour Party.
Add to that, the disclosure this week that
when the press and public tried
to contact the OBR by telephone, the treasury intercepted
and answered those calls.
Sir Alan said "However,
the fact that we were operating in the Treasury and relying
on official resources has raised doubts about our independence
in some quarters," Part of Sir Alan’s
brief was to set up the way the OBR was funded and run. After
his announcement that he would step down, he wrote
to the chancellor George Osborn stating that the OBR should
be moved out of the treasury, and should employ outside staff
and experts, instead of seconding treasury staff. George Osborn
agreed to the recommendations and said he was NOW advertising
for a replacement. You might wonder why the post
has not been advertised before. It is a shame that a man of
Sir Alan Budd’s expertise and credibility, doing a fantastic
job, should need to resign because of him being undermined.
It has also come to light that
Geoffrey Dicks and Graham Parker, two of the outside experts
with the OBR are also on 3 month contracts, but the
treasury could not confirm that they
would be going in August. Geoffrey Dicks was asked
by the treasury select committee whether the economy could
slip back into recession. He told them that after
the Budget, the OBR had revised its growth forecast,
saying that there are some budget measures which will
reduce demand, and the OBR had shaved half a percent
off the GDP, claiming the short term outlook for GDP was not
as good as pre-budget forecasts.
He also said "I still don't
think that will mean a double-dip into recession, but logically
the chances of that happening have increased."
Sir Alan Budd said “the
revised forecasts included the possibility of a double-dip
into recession, adding that they also include a stronger recovery”
If you thought the recession was bad – think again there
is a lot more hardship to come.
Vic
Farron RFT
Express. .
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