Sunday
morning and I’m in the office checking what has been
booked in for next week, my wife is away for the day, the
kids are going out shopping, so an ideal time for reflection.
I wrote a piece last Sunday The
EU in Crisis in which I casually mentioned that we had
just had one of the worst Octobers on record, and we weren’t
the only ones to have a bad October. I also mentioned that
I had been talking to one of the largest parcel delivery companies
in the UK, who admitted they were 40% down on last years figures.
Over the last 7 days we did as much work as we did in the
whole of October, which meant we had to call in all the sub
contractors we had on our books, as well as hiring vehicles
for agency drivers.
Survey
Results
I have just been looking at the results of the surveys we
carried out last week, apart from street surveys and company
surveys we also have women going to the same fashion shops
every month. The results show that top of the range clothing
is still doing well with stock replaced and full ranges available
to buy. Mid range garments, both male and female, which is
our core market, stores are hanging on to old ranges trying
to sell at normal retail prices, those odd sizes they are
left with. Normally these would be taken off sale, and brought
back for the January sales, enabling stores to generate more
sales with new lines. We would expect this trend to be reversed
over the next 7 to 10 days as we run up to Christmas.
Although we appear to be heading into a double dip recession,
almost world wide, the top of the range fashions, and the
budget ranges are still expected to do well. The squeeze will
be on mid range fashions.
Growth
GDP has been dropping for the last 15 months, giving a clear
indication that a recession is on its way. A recession is
two quarters of negative growth; some businesses after the
last recession changed their business models looking for lower
costs and higher profits, while still being conscious of the
need to reduce their carbon footprint, and improve their Social
Responsibility.
Readers Digest and Woolworth were forced into change; other
companies saw the advantage of change and embraced it.
Change has come about in several ways, principally through
the use of the internet: Companies have set up internet businesses,
either in their own brand name, or a different name to compete
against each other. With change comes the chance of increased
emissions; time to re-appraise the logistics supply change.
Today
in the UK is 'Rememberance Sunday' a time to reflect and remember
our War dead. Men and women who lost their lives defending
our country, and those who died protecting freedom in other
countries.
